Well, I wanted to write this with 13 games gone. Preferably sitting in bed, smoking a joint, y’know, taking it easy. But we’re here now, still sitting in bed, with the Portland Trail Blazers sitting at 8-18 and coming off a pair of weekend losses to the Phoenix Suns and San Antonio Spurs.
The losses came after a week spent playing spectator to the NBA cup and add to a league-worst a six-game losing streak. That’s probably the most realistic time to talk about the Trail Blazers’ season thus far and what’s likely to happen for the remainder.
So let’s bang a gong, and get it on!
The Sword Without a Point
There are key indicators that imply—talent deficit or not—that this offensive system has no point.
Simply put, the team and coaching staff struggles to identify or execute good offense. It predicates itself on dribble hand-offs at the top of the key as Anfernee Simons, Shaedon Sharpe, Scoot Henderson, and Deni Avdija play hot potato with any one of the centers available to find a gap. In reality, it’s nothing but a shell game in slow-motion draining six seconds of the shot clock.
Halfcourt possessions often finish with a chuck. When they don’t, the hand-offs are frequently blown-up. Passes go from excellent assists to infuriating turnovers on a coin flip. Despite the Trail Blazers proclivity for attacking the rim, they do not finish well. Closeouts are attacked ruthlessly, arguably to their own detriment where a simple readjustment three might be preferable.
It is maddening both to watch and seems absolutely frustrating to play. That’s not just hyperbole; here’s a big fucking graph that showcases all of their shooting woes through 25 games1.
| Blazers Shooting Woes (via Basketball-Reference) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FG% | League Rank | Freq % | League Rank | |
| Overall | .438 | 29 | ||
| 2P% | .506 | 28 | .602 | T-10 |
| 0-3 feet | .637 | 28 | .297 | 3 |
| 3-10 feet | .360 | 29 | .186 | 21 |
| 10-16 feet | .401 | 20 | .075 | 18 |
| 16 feet-3P line | .418 | 12 | .044 | T-16 |
| 3P% | .335 | 25 | .398 | T-20 |
| FT% | .773 | 20 | .2422 | 19 |
Sorry, that was unfair; it’s a lot of numbers. The skinny is that the Trail Blazers are near dead last in the league overall for shooting, with remarkably poor finishing anywhere within 10 feet, despite being in the top third of the league at reaching the basket. They improve in the midrange, grâce à Sharpe and Simons shooting above average from the midrange this season. Normally they would be joined by Deandre Ayton, but hand injuries have robbed him of his traditionally soft shooting touch.
The reason for all this poor finishing is not because of injuries, it’s a lack of easy looks. Only 45.9% of two pointers come off assists, the third worst rate in the league, and a fourth-worst 54.1 TS%. Portland does average 99.5 possessions per game (11th among all teams), however the squad still struggles to find and finish their transition opportunities. According to Cleaning the Glass, the team scores 110.2 points per 100 transition plays (when subtracting garbage time possessions), another 29th finish among all teams.
They also don’t trigger transition possessions as much as one would like; only 14.7% of all possessions started in transition (18th). According to Cleaning the Glass, the Blazers’ trigger a transition play on 62.9% of their live ball steals (27st) notching 114.9 points per 100 plays off steals (30th). Off of live ball rebounds, the numbers fare better, with 29.5% of live rebounds resulting in a transition play (11th) to generate 107.5 points per 100 plays (21st).
Alright, that was even more unfair; and this time there was no data table. For those keeping count that means the Trail Blazers only excel in generating transition plays off of live rebounds. That can be traced to Deni Avdija grabbing boards and speeding down the floor like he’s missed the team bus. The irony being that he hasn’t missed the bus, his teammates have.
To compound irony upon irony, this has flipped from the earlier part of the season when the Trail Blazers did rather well generating points off steals. With a greater pool of games, opposing teams have tightened up their turnovers teams have tightened up their execution. And despite Avdija has finding his footing, Portland in the last third of the league when playing in transition.
But all of this bricking does let the Trail Blazers do one thing well offensively: they crash the glass and pilfer pockets for 13 offensive rebounds per contest (4th). According to Cleaning the Glass, those putback plays account for 20.5 plays and 23.7 points per 100 misses, resulting in 112.3 points per 100 plays, ranking at 7th, 8th, and 13th among all teams.
So don’t say there ain’t no fight in this team of bricklayers, you just have to look really hard at the fine lines of the masonry.
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The Veteran Dilemma
The changes in offense might be the primary reason that Portland’s veteran three are all suffering big time this year.
Averages for Simons, Grant and Ayton have all plummeted, and while Grant and Ayton can still mask their poor offensive play with above-average defense, Simons’ game just looks worse overall. Across every statistical measure, Simons is having a down year. Career lows in field goal, three point and free throw percentages. Noticeable dips in points, assists and rebounds. You name it, Simons has probably struggled with it.
| Veterans of the Trail (via Basketball-Reference) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Anfernee Simons | Jerami Grant | Deandre Ayton | |
| Points | 17.1 | 16.0 | 14.2 |
| 2P% | .494 | .405 | .585 |
| 3P% | .325 | .385 | .263 |
| FT% | .913 | .824 | .619 |
| TS% | .538 | .537 | .573 |
| Rebounds | 2.6 | 3.5 | 10.0 |
| Assists | 4.5 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
Ayton’s struggles have been less pronounced. While numbers are down, he is still averaging a double-double. His shot just has not fallen due to a bruised index finger. The bigger struggle is how he plays. It has become very clear that his screen-setting ability is not just poor, but absolutely detrimental to the guards’ ability to free themselves. Ayton will prematurely slip screens then camp at the free throw line, simultaneously removing space in the paint and reducing his own efficiency as a shooter. While he does fight for rebounds it can lead to conflicts with teammates that both reduce numbers down the court and slow the transition game.
For Jerami Grant’s part, he might not be at the same level of offensive efficiency as in season’s past, but the emergence of Deni Avdija and Toumani Camara has meant that he doesn’t need to be a primary focal point of the offense nor stress as the team’s only wing that can make a bucket from the three-point line and play defense. In fact, it’s quite enjoyable watching Grant rediscover himself as a help defender who can switch off with Camara and Avdija to hound the other team’s best offensive players, conserve his energy and then use it to nail a corner three or slip his way to the rim.
The ball might not go into the hoop all the time, but Grant’s process has been more enjoyable to watch. Especially when he is feeling it from behind the three-point arc as he did in a 32 point effort against the Spurs. Of the three veterans not named Robert Williams III (more on him later), he would probably draw the most value all the while being the one that the Trail Blazers most likely want to keep.
Until the Trail Blazers do trade their veterans, their likely route to wins will continue to be a matter of Simons, Grant and Ayton playing to their talent.
Defense? Portland? In This Economy?!
So the Blazers have a limpid, languishing offensive system that leaves players struggling to manufacture points. Pretty dire right? Seems like this is a team not worth watching. However, the Blazers do deserve credit for some defensive principles keeping the team in games.
| Portland Plays Defense?! (via Basketball-Reference) | ||
|---|---|---|
| Stat | League Rank | |
| OPP FG% | .4753 | 23 |
| OPP 2P% | .548 | 20 |
| OPP 3P% | .375 | 15 |
| Fouls per game | 19.8 | 17 |
| Def Rebounds per game | 29.9 | 28 |
| Steals per game | 8.4 | 14 |
| Blocks per game | 6.0 | 5 |
| OPP TOV | 16.2 | 6 |
The chief players here are Toumani Camara, Donovan Clingan and Rob Williams III.
Camara currently ranks second in charges taken at 10 and has frustrated, in no short order, James Harden, Anthony Edwards, Julius Randle, Trae Young and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander among others. While his proclivity for picking players up for all 94 feet is something to be admired, the bigger defensive win is that now Camara can switch off-the-ball with Avdija and Grant, no slouches themselves.
Along with Dalano Banton, the forwards help prod and poke and provoke 8.4 steals per game, a rate good for middle of the league. The Blazers force turnovers equally upon their opponents (16.2) as they do themselves (16.8). This results in a laboratory of chaos wherein Portland ensures everyone is riding the hot mess express during 50/50 games. Every mistake is another reason to force their opponents into even more costly errors and generating transition points. While not finishing the fast break is an issue, it’s not where the Trail Blazers lose games.
The issue with Portland’s desire to run is how it results in 12.2 offensive rebounds for their opponents, second-worst in the league, and only 29.9 defensive rebounds per contest, third-worst in the league. Part of the problem comes with Ayton, Donovan Clingan and Rob Williams III not being on the court due to injury, but the larger issue lies in personnel.
The Trail Blazers regularly trot out a pair of weak rebounders for the starting lineup. While a weak rebounding guard is not much of an issue, the lack of rebounding from Jerami Grant is a serious deficiency that continues to hinder the game plan. The trade for Avdija was supposed to cover up that deficiency, and early on it seemed to work. Unfortunately, a bad bout of shooting moved him to the bench.
Which is what makes Donovan Clingan and Rob Williams III the second and third key players on the defensive end. In multiple games this season, the big rookie from Connecticut has made his presence known in the paint. Highlights include a stellar 17-point, 12-rebound, 8-block performance against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Later in the season he had a funky zero-point, 19 rebound game against Houston Rockets.
The latter performance saw Clingan suffer a knee sprain, making it all the more gutsy. His absence, however, showcased just how much the Trail Blazers missed his interior presence. Watching Clingan play is to watch opposing players look up, shake their heads and pass out. His sheer size means any intruders have to readjust what constitutes a good look at the basket. Dunk attempts are adjusted into layups, layups are forced into floaters.
Rob Williams III is the other side of the coin at center. While not quite the same paint deterrent, the veteran center possesses a lateral quickness that affords him the ability to move from a hedge to a blocking position. Remember that monster Clingan performance against the Timberwolves? Well, it came as a bookend to a stat-stuffing 19-point, 9-rebound effort from Williams. It’s still a matter of can he stay on the floor. History says no, and it might be better to trade him at the peak of his value as a heady backup.
Regardless, Williams being here doesn’t really save Billups’ system.
The Next 26 29 Games
Alright look, I’m not gonna do another one of these until before the All-Star Weekend. The Blazers play game 55 the week before All-Star Weekend. Average that out and we’re doing this season in thirds, which made waiting until game 26 really fortuitous if not exactly clean.
Anyways, my predictions from the beginning of the season 20-32 in the first 52 games of the season. That may have been too optimistic. Especially given the schedule’s heavy tilt towards the Western Conference over the first third of the season. It’s more likely that the Blazers find themselves closer to 13-42 by the All-Star Break.
But that diagnosis can change by some additional wins if the team continues to play hard, with pace and fire. There’s likely to be a change up before then; with plenty of veterans on good contracts available for trade, it would be well within the Trail Blazers’ interests to both clear a path for younger talent and increase their draft cache.
Until then, the best course of action is to just watch and enjoy the youth for all their foibles. They’re still learning and are following game plans to the best they can with skills they have. But it’s absolutely a joy to watch them string together great play. It’s ephemeral now but the talent is there; they’re just a sword in search of a point. Trail Blazers looking for their lead wagon.
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1 All stats from here on out are through 25 games. Don’t at me if they change on Basketball-Reference tomorrow.
2 Frequency in this case being free throw rate; basically the amount of FTA per FGA
3 Lower is better in the case of opposing field goal %
The Casual Ramble 