General NBA Standings Predictions
Tonight the Portland Trail Blazers will be opening their 2024-25 season against the Golden State Warriors at home. It’s going to be a long one and I am fully prepared; this team is going to suck.
Not in the usual way, however. The team is honestly too good to be a complete entertainment desert. They’re probably just not talented enough to rise above a Western Conference blood bath. The common line right now has the Trail Blazers at 21.5 wins. That’s a full seven games underneath the next nearest Western Conference team, the Utah Jazz, at 28.5 wins.1
I’m not sure if that’s an accurate reflection of the situation. Lauri Markannen aside, the Trail Blazers have a higher common talent floor than the Utah Jazz. Are people really going to say Jordan Clarkson is better than Anfernee Simons? Would a third-party observer really say they would rather have John Collins over Deni Avdija? Are people really forgetting that Deandre Ayton is head and shoulders above Walker Kessler?2
In all seriousness, the Trail Blazers and Jazz are in the same bucket as the Brooklyn Nets, Chicago Bulls, Detroit Pistons, Toronto Raptors and Washington Wizards for sub-30 win teams all gunning for a better lottery pick. Hell, throw the Charlotte Hornets in here, too. This stew is going to produce a lot of weird results as teams try to one-up each other in this year’s annual Tankathon.
To that end, here’s how I see the standings playing out:
| 2024-2025 NBA Season Predictions | |
|---|---|
| Western Conference | Eastern Conference |
| 1. Oklahoma City Thunder (56-26) | 1. New York Knicks (60-22) |
| 2. Minnesota Timberwolves (54-28) | 2. Boston Celtics (56-26) |
| 3. Dallas Mavericks (53-29) | 3. Milwaukee Bucks (54-28) |
| 4. Denver Nuggets (52-30) | 4. Orlando Magic (50-32) |
| 5. Phoenix Suns (49-33) | 5. Cleveland Cavaliers (49-33) |
| 6. Los Angeles Lakers (48-34) | 6. Indiana Pacers (49-33) |
| 7. Sacramento Kings (48-34) | 7. Philadelphia 76ers (46-36) |
| 8. Memphis Grizzlies (46-36) | 8. Miami Heat (39-43) |
| 9. Golden State Warriors (44-38) | 9. Atlanta Hawks (35-47) |
| 10. New Orleans Pelicans (42-40) | 10. Toronto Raptors (30-52) |
| 11. Los Angeles Clippers (40-42) | 11. Chicago Bulls (28-54) |
| 12. Houston Rockets (38-44) | 12. Detroit Pistons (24-58) |
| 13. San Antonio Spurs (33-49) | 13. Charlotte Hornets (22-60) |
| 14. Utah Jazz (28-54) | 14. Brooklyn Nets (18-64) |
| 15. Portland Trail Blazers (27-55) | 15. Washington Wizards (16-66) |
Hey there! Casual Rambler here, just wanting to thank you for reading my blog. I try to avoid marketing myself and I don’t like paywalling content. That’s why most of this website, if not all, is free. However, subscribing to my Patreon helps me keep doing it. Patrons gain exclusive short stories as well as early-access to monthly poetry and photography posts. Thanks again and please enjoy the rest of the site!
A Roster Review
That’s right, your 2024-25 Portland Trail Blazers are going 27-55 this year.
The way this has occurred to me is because the roster outclasses the worst of the Eastern Conference and are on equal terms with the next tier; the Pistons, Bulls and Raptors. They just exist in a conference that has been, on balance, superior since the start of the millennium and has evolved from an eight-team bloodbath to ten teams and now twelve. Talent-wise, the West has left the East in the dust, and to be honest, the teams in the West have had (generally) more competent leadership than the East, whether by active ownership or smart management.
Moreover, I see the Trail Blazers going 20-32 in their first 52 games due to an increased pace surprising teams expecting an easy out. This increased pace will be aided by natural development from Henderson and Camara and boosted by the addition of Avdija. But the roster as well is far deeper than most contemporaries.
| Portland Trail Blazers Depth Chart | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
| Anfernee Simons | Shaedon Sharpe | Deni Avdija | Jerami Grant | Deandre Ayton | |
| Scoot Henderson | Matisse Thybulle | Toumani Camara | Jabari Walker | Robert Williams III | |
| Dalano Banton | Rayan Rupert | Kris Murray | Donovan Clingan | ||
| Duop Reath | |||||
I posit that this depth chart actually ranks somewhere in the 18th and 20th mark of the league. It doesn’t have much top-end talent, definitely no Top-50 players, but there’s plenty of prospects and gadget players to fill holes and win games. That’s why Joe Cronin will ship any combination of Anfernee Simons or Jerami Grant (likely Simons because of his proclivity to slow down the pace) and Matisse Thybulle or Robert Williams at the trade deadline, to grab draft capital in 2026 and 2027.
The Trail Blazers will then lean on their younger core, Henderson, Sharpe, Camara, Avdija and Clingan for the rest of the year, letting them figure out a chemistry. This will not be easy, and they will proceed to go 7-23. Voila, a win total of 27-55. If I’m wrong, whatever. If I’m right, equally whatever, it’s all Nostradamus anyways, but for the part of the fans, cheering for their squad to lose the most games out of the ignoble nine “tankers” is a grievous wound to the whole point of supporting a team.
What Do We Cheer For?
I’m already pontificating, so let me just raise this soapbox two feet higher: I will always cheer for the Trail Blazers to finish the season at 42-40 than 22-60, NBA purgatory be damned. Winning more games than losing is fun and if the Trail Blazers finish higher than 27 wins that means one of several positive things has occurred:
- Shaedon Sharpe, Scoot Henderson, Toumani Camara, Deni Avdija and/or some other second/third-year young’un has made an incredible leap in impact;
- Donovan Clingan is far more league-ready than previously assumed and is playing significant minutes by the middle of the season;
- Joe Cronin made an accurate guess of addition by subtraction and received a substantial return from any of Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant, Matisse Thybulle and/or Robert Williams III;
- Chauncey Billups has become a viable, wily head coach able to stand-up in a head-to-head matchup with the likes of Mark Daigneault or Will Hardy.3
These have all been ranked in likeliest of occurrence, from most likely to least likely. However, it must be noted that the Trail Blazers ending the season at 42-40 is a pipe dream.4 Even a 30-plus win season would be no small feat. Not the least because if the Trail Blazers begin sniffing a 33 or 35-win season, the likelihood that Jerami Grant or Anfernee Simons are shipped out goes through the roof and to the moon.
It cannot be stressed enough that they are already the most likely to be traded anyways, so there will likely be no chance Cronin throws away a great chance to acquire some potentially franchise-changing talent in the 2025 NBA Draft. The top six spots alone are worth the price of admission. But should fans cheer for a better draft pick?
No; more likely, fans should be cheering for nothing less than player development.
Player Development Goals
Highest on my list is Shaedon Sharpe blossoming into a two-way star. Even with the shoulder injury that will keep him out until mid-November, he has a huge opportunity to blossom into a potential two-way All-Star. He wouldn’t receive a nod, but he would raise eyebrows if he were to average 20 points, six rebounds and five assists this year. The trajectory is there. Before NBA defenses zeroed in and the plethora of injuries extended to him, Sharpe looked the part, averaging 26.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 5.0 assists.
Another is Toumani Camara. While he projects as an extremely utilitarian role player, his reported commitment to improvement puts him in a category akin to Wesley Matthews or, even more tantalizing, Jimmy Butler. It’s a crazy ceiling, but the kid has proved himself to be a grinder. He was arguably the Blazers’ best player during the preseason, averaging 13.8 points, 6.3 rebounds 2.3 assists and 2.8 stocks (steals/blocks). With Sharpe out of the lineup, he will have a chance to really show some impact early on in the season.
Obviously, there’s Scoot Henderson. His improvement is key this year. If he can put together an early-season resume that looks a lot like his last 11-game stretch from the previous year. Henderson averaged 19.2 points, 3.5 rebounds and 8.1 assists over that stretch and looked like the point guard promised at the start of the 2023-24 season. Considering that he will likely come off the bench, a 15/4/6 statline would be more than adequate. If he exceeds that, it will be hard not to consider clearing the way for him to start.
Of course, fans are going to want to see Deni Avdija grab rebounds and unlock the fast break that Billups has long been chirping for since his hiring. Fans are going to want to see Donovan Clingan grab boards, dunk the ball and maybe shoot a cheeky three. Moreover, seeing Deandre Ayton shoot from range will also be a key development. But the thing that really tantalizes me is Rayan Rupert.
Of the three wing players on bottom of the depth chart, (Rupert, Kris Murray and Jabari Walker) Rupert has the most potential to evolve from gadget player to legitimate sixth-man or starter. He shoots the three ball better than expected, he has a frame that can put on some muscle and he’s starting to learn how to use his body and find ways to the rim. Weirdly, he reminds me of Jerami Grant if Grant was more of a guard than a forward.
Finally, it would be remiss to say any Trail Blazer fan does not want the best from Simons and Grant. If those two aren’t averaging 20-plus points each on adequate shooting splits, then Cronin’s team will have some hard questions to answer about why they are paying them. Much like Ayton, if the money is the first thing that comes to mind for everyone watching, then the Trail Blazers will be in far deeper trouble beyond a rebuild.
Looking Forward to Tonight’s Game
Going into tonight’s game against the Golden State Warriors, I am excited to see just another season of professional basketball in Portland. As an eternal optimist, the thought that the Trail Blazers might surprise us with some fast-paced basketball this year is enough to keep me watching. That’s not something I expect others to join me in, especially considering that the season is long and the team will suffer a lack of talent.
But this is the first time I’ve felt like the team has done an admirable job of making a balanced roster with plenty of intriguing prospects and skilled mentors. It’s a roster that probably needs another high-level prospect from the draft, but it’s also a roster that’s not an absolute desert. With Henderson, Sharpe, and Avdija, there’s going to be plenty of highlights in game.
So by the Schonz, it’s been six months and I am starving for some Portland Trail Blazers basketball. So play those funky horns!
Patrons receive early-access to monthly poetry, short stories and short films as well as exclusive access to Patron-only short stories, poetry, and behind-the-scenes content. Every additional Patron lets me continue my dream of being a full-time creative, and I appreciate your support.
1 Full disclosure, sports betting is stupid and its pervasive nature across sports media has completely perverted the conversation surrounding professional sports. Moreover, I am never going to give anybody gambling advice on this website. To remain even-keeled however, sports has the least amount of chance involved; of all the ways to gamble, it comes with the most prior data to make an informed guess. If you approach me in person with a question about a good bet, I will give you an honest opinion and then tell you to send it, even if the outcome is unlikely. Hey, man, it’s not my money.
2 The discourse around Deandre Ayton is still insanity to me. Totally understandable that he’s slightly overpaid and his game has some serious limits. But he’s still just 25 and he absolutely anchored a championship-level defense in 2022. The man was only stumped in the 2022 playoffs by a completely unhinged Giannis Antetokounmpo and then thrown completely under the bus by his teammates, his coach and the franchise owner.
3 Basically, the young-and-upcoming tier of head coaches. Two notches below the highly esteemed Poppovich, Kerr, Carlisle and Spoelstra tier, but adjacent to the Budenholzer, Brown, Kidd tier.
4 Fitting that I smoked a joint before I came up with that result, then.
The Casual Ramble 
nice article Ben! Good prediction as well as it very realistic based on roster and the western conference.
LikeLiked by 1 person