The Portland Trail Blazers’ 2025-2026 campaign begins tomorrow against the Minnesota Timberwolves. I’ll be at the game, which means there’s no better time for me to talk about what I think is going to play out for the year.

Last Details from the Offseason

Before we begin, there are some offseason things to which we must attend. Yes, even after four posts, I still have things to talk about the offseason. So bear with me here.

First off, Joe Cronin put the finishing touches yesterday to an offseason that has been, by my estimation, masterful by signing both Toumani Camara and Shaedon Sharpe to their rookie extension deals. Both received four-year extensions starting in 2026-27 with Camara making $82 million and Sharpe making $90 million through 2029-2030.

These are insane player valuations when considering comparable players. For Camara that means side-eyeing Keegan Murray’s five-year, $150 million contract extension and for Sharpe that means breathing a sigh of relief that he did not receive a Jalen Green-type deal for $105 million over three years.

Moreover the deals mean different things for Camara, it’s a pat-on-the-back for becoming a defensive player of the year candidate and all-defense stalwart. For Sharpe, it’s a “go prove it” deal. He’s already proven that he’s talented enough to be a lethal offensive weapon. Now it’s a matter of him proving if he can be ranked among the Devin Bookers and Antony Edwards of the league. The type of primary playmaker that one can build a franchise around. It is imperative he does, because that’s the one thing missing from this team.

The second offseason happening of note is that I almost forgot what it is like to be a fan of the Portland Trail Blazers. I was riding pretty high, seeing the Trail Blazers swap Simons for Holiday, agreeing to a buyout with Deandre Ayton, receiving some promising early returns from Yang Hansen in the Summer League and then landing Damian Lillard off waivers.

Then Scoot Henderson tore his hamstring just before training camp. He was listed out for 4-6 weeks, and while it was not serious for surgery, I would be surprised if he returns any time before December. In fact, I would rather he not return until after December. This year is too important to Henderson’s development to risk further injury by rushing him back because the offense is in the dumps while he is gone.

However, that will be a challenge for the team to solve, and if they can not solve it, then they are likely not the team that fans hope they can be.

Lastly, the lawsuit against the Cherngs has been settled. Which means that Happy Panda is back on the menu, Rip Citizens. The sale is moving forward!

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Expectations for the Team

But enough offseason talk. It’s time to play some goddamn basketball after an offseason that saw Joe Cronin position the team into competitive posture. Because of that, expectations now become a little more real. There’s less abstractions and more concrete baselines. To that end, I have a couple for this team:

• A top 5 defense predicated on steals, blocks and deflections paired with a top 5 transition offense that actually capitalizes on those deflections.
• One of Toumani or Clingan to make an all defensive team, preferably both.
• Any one of Sharpe, Henderson or Deni Avdija to explode into all-star status. That looks a little different for each but here’s the statistical baseline for each:
  • Avdija: 22 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists per game (while reducing turnovers to less than three)
  • Sharpe: 24 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists per game (while being the primary offensive weapon)
  • Henderson: 18 points, 4 rebounds, 8 assists per game (while being the primary ballhandler)

I suspect that the team’s record will likely end anywhere from 36-46 to 44-38 as they fight for a play-in spot. My goal for any team looking a leap into competitive standings is simple: 45-37 and a playoff berth, be it through the play-in or outright good play. This was the goal coach Jack Ramsay set before the 1976-77 NBA season and it will be my goal any time the team positions itself for a run at competitive standings.

That’s going to require some development from each position. To that end, I’ve split up my hopes and expectations by each position.

The Guard Position

My main hope is that Henderson recovers from his hamstring injury and develops into the no-questions asked starter at point guard, eschewing the veteran Holiday over the last two months of the season. He will look poised and in control, able to use his shifty agility to cause defenses to overplay certain angles and leave others wide open for him to exploit.

Another hope is that Sharpe finally figures it out as a primary offensive weapon. The new offense the Trail Blazers displayed over the preseason was one of multiple screeners, cutters and space manipulation. This will put Sharpe in a position more similar to his rookie year, wherein he was thriving as corner shooter and cutter. The hope is that he can become less Damian Lillard and more Stephen Curry or Reggie Miller; an off-the-ball menace where one second looking away is to give two or three points away.

For Jrue Holiday, the hope is not that he forms a terrifying triplet of on-the-ball defenders with Camara and Avdija. He will. It’s the hope that he is healthy enough to sustain and become a model for his younger counterparts. It’s the hope that he will be in the starting lineup to begin the season, but will eventually cede the starting guard positions.

For Matisse Thybulle, I just hope he fills in the gaps with impressive defense and continues with a serviceable threeball.

Expectations

My expectation is that Henderson makes the leap by the end of the year, but Sharpe still hovers and floats. Sharpe is going to be good enough to be a point of emphasis on the opposing scouting reports, but still not quite the primary option fans have clamored for since the first glimpses of his potential. Instead the guard rotation will be play by committee as injuries sideline Sharpe, Henderson, Holiday and Thybulle throughout the year.

The Forward Position

My main hope here is that Deni Avdija becomes the secondary option in the Trail Blazers’ offense and the clear best all-around player on the roster. His impact and counting statistics make him a no-questions-asked all-star and the first Trail Blazers in 10 years not named Damian Lillard.

The hope for Toumani Camara is to become even more of the veteran high-level starter that became during his second year in the league. His three-pointer will need to become such a danger that defenses over commit and open up driving lanes for him. He already led the league in taking charges and generating total offensive fouls and received All-Defense second team selection. Now it’s matter of upgrading to the first team, no questions.

As for Jerami Grant, I just hope he can slip into the sixth/seventh man role with minimal issues, facilitating the much needed development of his younger counterparts. His counting statistics do not need to jump, he just needs massively improved efficiency from two- and three-point range while deferring in transition. If teams start calling for Grant’s services, then he is golden.

Meanwhile, I hope Kris Murray fixes his deep ball and becomes a reliable gadget 3&D player, making Grant more expendable at the trade deadline.

Expectations

My expectations are that Avdija is the clear cut best player on the roster, but only because Sharpe and Henderson do not step up to claim that mantle. Instead, Avdija becomes a point forward in the mold of Luka Doncic. Toumani, for his part, continues to be one of the best defensive players in the league. He will sit atop the offensive fouls generated leader board, but is not the overall league leader in total stops. He makes another All-Defense second team because why would writers let a player on a 0.500 ball team make the first team?

Meanwhile, Grant is relegated to the bench not because there is no space on the starting lineup, but because he just plain plays like he does not want to be in Portland. He is only inserted into the starting lineup because of a thin guard lineup. Kris Murray just exists.

The Center Position

For center position, it’s all about Donovan Clingan building on a successful rookie campaign. Can he start the season able to play 30 minutes per game while showcasing more situational awareness around the rim?

If Clingan keeps the ball high on offensive rebounds and putbacks and demonstrates an improved three ball on rising attempts through the year, ending the season with 4-5 per game, then that seems doable. What I hope is that maintains defensive prowess with somewhat improved mobility and reads and showcases his passing vision within the new offense, hitting cutters from the high post and top of the arc. Hopefully, Clingan will improves to his free throw percentage to above league average.

Yang Hansen, meanwhile, has an easier benchmark to pass: is he able to make some impact off the bench and become the de facto back up? As the season progresses, I hope he improves on defense and make Rob Williams somewhat expendable. Ends up averaging a non-injurious 10-15 minutes per game with spot minutes provided by Reath, Camara and Avdija in small ball lineups.

For Duop Reath, it’s a matter of him returning to form as a sharp shooting alternative center when injury inevitably arises. This is Portland after all. His locker room presence becomes invaluable and he finally receives “Don’t Feat the Reaper” as his in-arena jingle from DJ OG One.

Lastly, I hope Rob Williams III is not dead. Just trade bait that starts off the year as the effective backup to Clingan and plays more than 30 games on the season, but then cedes that role to Hansen.

Expectations

Cligan continues as an excellent, league-leading paint defender, is able to make better tertiary playmaking reads and improves his offensive rebounding instincts but stays below average from the charity strip and three point range. His mobility and conditioning are improved, but drop coverage is still mandatory and 30 minutes per game is his absolute maximum.

Yang Hansen looks like a 19-year old out there with bright flashes but inconsistent minutes as the backup center position is filled in by him, Reath, Camara and Avdija. Funeral services for the NBA career of Rob Williams III begin in earnest. “Don’t Fear the Reaper” is played.

Final Thoughts

With Lillard out for the year, the Blazers are playing with effectively 14 rostered players plus 2 two-ways. Because they will also be missing Henderson for at least four weeks of the season due to the hamstring tear, that means their starting rotation will like not look the same by the season’s end.

Starting Depth Chart:

Guard	Wing	Wing	Forward	Center
Holiday	Sharpe	Camara	Avdija	Clingan
Henderson	Thybulle	Murray	Grant	Williams III
Wesley	Rupert	Cissoko	—	Yang
Love	—	—	—	Reath

It’s been reported by Sean Highkin that Grant will not be in the starting lineup, but it would not surprise me if the Blazers go with a “big wing” lineup of Holiday/Avdija/Camara/Grant/Clingan throughout the season due to injuries in the guard position. It would work, but at this point, both Sharpe and Henderson will need to show the staff that they not only deserve the starter spots, by that any other option is plain absurd or just an emergency in the face of their talent/youth.

So where will they end up? Well here’s my standings predictions.

Western Conference	Playoffs	Eastern Conference
Oklahoma City Thunder	1	Cleveland Cavaliers
Denver Nuggets	2	New York Knicks
Houston Rockets	3	Detroit Pistons
Minnesota Timberwolves	4	Atlanta Hawks
Los Angeles Lakers	5	Milwaukee Bucks
Golden State Warriors	6	Orlando Magic
	Play-In
San Antonio Spurs	7	Boston Celtics
Dallas Mavericks	8	Indiana Pacers
Portland Trail Blazers	9	Miami Heat
Phoenix Suns	10	Philadelphia 76ers
	Lottery
Memphis Grizzlies	11	Chicago Bulls
Los Angeles Clippers	12	Toronto Raptors
Sacramento Kings	13	Brooklyn Nets
New Orleans Pelicans	14	Washington Wizards
Utah Jazz	15	Charlotte Hornets

I make these predictions knowing full well that I do not give a damn about any of the other teams and have not paid much attention to any of the nuances of their offseason. Not even the admittedly hilarious kerfuffle between the league, the Clippers, Kawhi Leonard and the whole Aspiration fraud story has really penetrated my radar. That said, hope springs eternal in Rip City, and outside of the top six, I think there’s plenty of space for the Trail Blazers to slot in for the play-in.

I have said it before and I will say it again: 45-37 and playoff berth. That’s where the dream starts to happen in Portland.

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