Well, it’s been a while since we’ve talked about the Portland Trail Blazers. I wanted to ramble about the last twenty games, but I found nothing that I could say that didn’t repeat what I was touching on from my blog posts about surpassing 25 wins on the season or just how sweet that win streak was.
Hell, now the Trail Blazers are sitting pretty at 31 wins, completely outstripping even my semi-bold preseason prediction by four.
The remarkable aspect of this second half of the season has been how the youth has powered the performance. After commencing the campaign as understudies to the veterans, Shaedon Sharpe, Scoot Henderson, Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara and Donovan Clingan have become a fab five of sorts. A baby Blazer unit growing up in real time.
Since reigniting against Chicago in mid-January, the Trail Blazers have been one of the top ten teams in the league. According to Cleaning the Glass, they have the second best defensive rating in that span, winning games at a 54 win pace. They’re generating the second most transition possessions of all teams, the second most off live rebounds and the fifth most off of steals.
They struggle to finish these opportunities, making only 117.4 points per 100 plays, but that hardly matters when teams can barely manage to score against them in the halfcourt. The Trail Blazers have led the league in set defense, stifling opposing teams to an average 91.2 points per 100 plays amd capping them at a 52.1 effective FG%.
Mike Richman of Locked On Blazers1 did an excellent analysis of how the team has managed to work this defensive magic, identifying that the Trail Blazers have managed to pull a Jedi mind trick on the entire league from the corner three spot. Portland has, whether by luck or skill (perhaps both), limited their opponents to a league leading 31.4 FG%.
These are all eye-popping statistics, but the obvious question is can the Trail Blazers keep it up?
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A key trend has emerged since going on this tear: Portland beats the bad teams, but never quite catches the cigar carrying good teams. Heartbreakers against Cleveland and New York, as well as some down-and-out performances against Oklahoma City and Boston have left the Trail Blazers in a precarious spot, two games behind the 10/11 spots of Phoenix and Dallas.
Despite Dallas descending rapidly in penance for trading Luka Doncic, and despite Phoenix having some terrible team chemistry, the Baby Blazers are facing an uphill battle. If they are to carry this out, they really can’t lost many more games for the rest of the season. Winning less than half of them would knock them out for good, but the margin between a 6-6 and 8-4 record is razor thin.
As long as the team has a chance to reach the play-in, the closing games this season will be fierce. But what happens if the Trail Blazers do make the play-in?
For starters, it does not mean they lose their pick. The 2025 pick will only convey to Chicago if the Trail Blazers win both their play-in games. There’s a reality out there wherein the Trail Blazers make the play-in, win the first game, lose the second and then win the lottery. In some circles, we would call this karmic justice. Others might just consider it cosmic luck.
However, the chances are awfully small in the upper lottery. Portland is looking at a 9.4% chance of a top four pick and a 2.4% chance of running the table for number one. Not greats odd, but losing that pick would be a big blow, regardless. Not because it could win the lottery, mind you, but because it removes an option to add perimeter shooting for cheap.
That’s the one skillset the Trail Blazers desperately need, whether it’s from a draft pick, Shaedon Sharpe, Scoot Henderson, Toumani Camara, Deni Avdija, hell, Duop Reath. Please, somebody, please take and make your three-pointers.
AND YET…2
There’s something to be said for how the end of this season has done more for the Trail Blazers developmentally as a unit. Avdija has moved from promising high-level starter category to potential all-star, averaging nearly 17.8 points, 7.5 rebounds and 4.3 assists in the span.
Donovan Clingan has moved into the starting lineup, seamlessly increasing his minutes load each game and still maintaining an effective paint presence. Toumani Camara has transformed into a contender for an NBA Defensive Team spot while also improving his offensive output. Sharpe and Henderson continue to find their footing, exploding every few games, before resuming their regular production numbers.
Even Anfernee Simons, young veteran as he is, has found more success working off-the-ball in a volume he has not seen since Terry Stotts was still the head coach in Portland. From the bench, Jabari Walker and Duop Reath have come in and showcased themselves as solid depth pieces.
Walker had a scintillating, and I mean absolutely scintillating, performance against Boston, going a perfect 6-for-6 from behind the three-point arc. That confidence, competence and the results carried over for quite a games before Karl Anthony-Towns decided to send an elbow into Walker’s face. The plucky power forward has been out due to concussion protocol since then.
Reath for this part, has improved massively on the defensive end, tallying plenty of blocks and getting his hands into the passing lanes as his shot slowly came around. Speaking of passing lanes, Matisse Thybulle is back and has been an absolute menace in three games. What Thybulle did to the Washington Wizards was just diabolical—making easy read after easy read to steal the ball back and steal the stole from their jeseys.
Altogether, these are the kind of performances that make me throw up my hands and say “fuck it, I don’t care about Cooper Flagg right now.”
Moreover, it’s a reminder that there is more than one way to build a team. The Trail Blazers are building something similar to Chauncey’s Pistons of the mid-aughts. There is no clear superstar, instead they are willing to let any one of Simons, Sharpe, Avdija, Henderson or Camara be the star of the night. They play tough, they play hard, and when they can take teams into the torture chamber, they lock the door tight.
This little run of play might not yield anything, either, in terms of a playoff appearance. It might just tank Portland’s odds to add that vaunted future superstar (Flagg or otherwise) and really cook up a perennial title favorite. In other words, we have been promised nothing. However, tanking promises even less: suck terribly for the chance at a savior.
The Trail Blazers are not looking to be saved. They are playing like their lives depend on it and they are finding out about themselves in ways that no tank could ever reveal. So catch them at the Rose Garden while you can, because that’s where a good basketball team grows.
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1 Shout out to the pass-first point guard himself, Richman is perfect for anyone who wants daily digestible Trail Blazers coverage.
2 Look, I get it, caps is a no-no for any editor, but the undercase just wasn’t doing it for me.
The Casual Ramble 