Our long recreational nightmare is over: Damian Lillard is no longer a Portland Trail Blazer.
It almost doesn’t seem real, still. Even after seeing him in a Bucks jersey. And after the initial frustration and prolonged angst, I’m left with bittersweet feelings. Lillard was probably the greatest Trail Blazer in terms of records and sheer cultural importance. And the limits of his success in Portland were ultimately defined by what others did not do, rather than what he himself accomplished.
LaMarcus Aldridge refusing to re-sign with Neil Olshey. Neil Olshey refusing to trade his prized asset in CJ McCollum. Paul Allen, watching the results of the 2017-2018 campaign and refusing to fire Neil Olshey. In the end, I’m left with my thoughts on the waterfront; “we coulda been a contenda.”
But that’s only when I think about what’s past. When I look forward from this sordid divorce, I’m more or less astonished at what’s been gained. Because any trade for a 200 million dollar contract was not going to be clean, it’s actually a tale of two trades. One for Damian Lillard and then one for Jrue Holiday. Here’s the tally after the Holiday transaction.
Portland Trail Blazers
Deandre Ayton (C)
Robert Williams III (C)
Malcolm Brogdon (G)
Toumani Camara (PF)
GSW 2024 1st Round Pick (Top-4 Protected)
BOS 2029 1st Round Pick (Unprotected)
MKE 2029 1st Round Pick (Unprotected)
MKE 2028 1st Round Pick Swap (Most favourable)
MKE 2030 1st Round Pick Swap (Most favourable)
Phoenix Suns
Jusuf Nurkic (C)
Grayson Allen (G/F)
Nassir Little (G/F)
Keon Johnson (G)
Milwaukee Bucks
Damian Lillard (G)
Boston Celtics
Jrue Holiday (G)
That’s a haul. Maybe not a capitalized haul, considering how many other players the Blazers had to give up to make the money work, but one could consider the Phoenix Suns portion more of a swap of the mercurial and aging Nurkic and two low-impact players for the mercurial and youthful Ayton.
Meanwhile the Lillard side of the trade netted Robert Williams III, Malcolm Brogdon and potentially five first rounders. Given that the Miami deal was Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro and two picks, that’s a haul. Further, it’s as close to a masterclass in asset acquisition and exchange as a general manager could perform in such a difficult situation.
Were there enough picks? Probably not to my liking, but any further trade with these pieces can all be aggregated to this foundational trade. More importantly, all of the picks and swaps received thus far represent good value.
The Blazers played it smart also by pushing for picks late in the decade from Milwaukee and Boston. Both of these teams will have severe hangovers from the new collective bargaining agreement and its restrictive second apron. Having their picks during that predicted hangover is a smart bet.
There will be specific pressure on the Celtics and Bucks not to outright tank in 2028, 2029 or 2030 in order to ensure the Blazers don’t profit heavily off their desire to win now, but they almost might not have a choice. By pushing so far ahead into the future, the Blazers are timing Henderson’s prime with high value assets for any all-in moves. Portland more or less controls Milwaukee’s future.
The Golden State pick is a redirect from the Marcus Smart-Kristaps Porzingis deal earlier this summer. It has the potential for low lottery depending on the health of an aging championship core that’s become significantly older with the addition of Chris Paul. But should that not occur, the Blazers will have their own pick in a solid lottery. Next year’s draft is not slated to be “generational” (as overused as that term is), but it does have talent worth talking about.
Deandre Ayton should be considered the prized player of this trade. Much maligned during his last two years in Phoenix, things were not always this way. Playing for Arizona State, Ayton was a David Robinson in miniature. Exploding in the lane, finessing on the low block and overpowering opponents in transition, he was a talented, if somewhat inconsistent, prospect well worth a top pick.
With the Suns, however, the gravy train of touches stopped, it was Devin Booker’s team and Booker needed a big who could play both rollman and paint protector. Being talented made it easier to convert his play style and his commitment made him the integral piece of a talented Phoenix finals team. In 2021, they were only beaten by a force of will in Giannis Antetokounmpo and his Milwaukee Bucks.
In no uncertain terms, the organization pegged the loss on Ayton for failing to contain the league’s most dominant player. The unrest continued when the Suns declined to negotiate a new contract with Ayton ahead of restricted free agency. Accusations of attitude and competitive fire were levied against Ayton, and the prodigal Sun was blamed for series loss after series loss.
His contract stood in limbo until the Indiana Pacers forced Phoenix’s hand to match an offer sheet at $133 million over four years. The bridge lay burning aside Ayton’s trade value. So why trade for him?
Ayton, unlike Nurkic, is hesitant to be a fulltime rollman in the pick and roll offense. He wants more touches in the midrange area despite the inherent inefficiency of those shots in a three-point shooting league. In Phoenix, however, he was not alone in the midrange game. Next years’ Suns will probably shoot more threes, but their bread and butter will still exist 10 feet out.
Portland is different. Anfernee Simons is a three point sniper, Jerami Grant had his most successful three-point shooting stretch just last season and there’s hope that Shaedon Sharpe will continue to improve his already promising form. Beyond that he can pair with Williams for added rim pressure. As far as the midrange goes, it’ll be Henderson and Ayton all alone with the option to roll.
At the very least, a change in scenery could see Ayton revitalize his career in Portland. Add in that he’s only 25 and the Blazers are making a solid bet that Ayton’s best years are ahead of him. He’s still a clear athletic upgrade over Nurkic in terms of speed and rim pressure.
But the rim won’t just have to deal with Ayton. Also acquired in the second half of the trade, Robert Williams III is another a big man acquisition is not only known for his rim running but his defensive acumen. He’s the rare switchable center, a disciple of Al Horford with a garbage man approach.
The big known as Timelord proved to be a key piece to the Celtics at their best. There’s no need or desire from Williams to use possessions, he’s here to rebound, block or dunk as needed. He also proved to struggle with staying healthy during the season. In this regard, we have a match made in hell for those who believe the Blazers are cursed when it comes to the center position.
Still, both Williams and Ayton form one of the most talented front courts in the league on paper, a farcry from the halcyon days of Nurkic and Eubanks. The Blazers now have proper size at the center position, should they stay healthy.
Also redirected from Boston was Malcolm Brogdon, the reigning sixth man of the year. A veteran 6’5” point guard known for his accurate shooting and crafty driving, his foot speed will surprise the unassuming. Despite assumptions that Brogdon will be traded for more parts soon, the Blazers have commented on keeping him as part of the plan. It remains to be seen what that plan is.
He brings a veteran force that will calm the youngest Blazers team in a decade, but his backup minutes at the point guard position will create a situation where Sharpe only finds minutes at small forward. (Ed. Note: Another three guard lineup? Ugh.) Still, his contract is valuable enough to trade should the front office feel the need to acquire more assets.
Perhaps the most underappreciated piece of this entire trade is the Belgian power forward Toumani Camara. Phoenix’s late second round pick from Dayton registered 14 points and eight rebounds last season in the NCAA and is coming off some excellent showings in the Summer League. Camara has excellent court vision, solid footwork in the post and a nose for rebounding.
He also was a part of Portland’s pre-draft process, which means this was a Mike Schmitz special. Had the Blazers not worked out a draft night deal with Rayan Rupert’s agent, Camara would have certainly been on the table at #43 overall. All-in-all, there’s real talent to refine here and he can work on a similar timeline as Sharpe, Walker and Murray.
Ultimately the greatest gift from this trade will be a wiping of the slate. And it is that gift to be something new that will be the lasting impact the trade.
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